{"database": "pelican", "table": "content", "rows": [["ryan", "musings", "# What is the AHL\n\n[The AHL](https://theahl.com/), or American Hockey League, is a hockey minor\nleague based in the US and Canada. It's widely considered to be the step right\nbelow the [NHL](https://www.nhl.com/) which is the top Hockey League in North\nAmerica.\n\nThere are 32 teams in the AHL, and [23 of them make the\nplayoffs](https://theahl.com/qualification-rules). The teams play for the\n[Calder Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calder_Cup).\n\n# What are the Calder Cup Playoffs?\n\nThe Calder Cup Playoffs are the name given to the AHL team vying for the\nChampionship Calder Cup. The [2023 Calder Cup\nPlayoffs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Calder_Cup_playoffs) started on\nApril, 18 2023 with 14 teams playing in 7 different series while the other 9\nall had byes, that is, they did NOT play in the first round.\n\nOne thing to note is that the first round is essentially a play in1 round of\nthe playoffs, but it's not an evenly divided play-in.\n\nThe current format has round 1 with a best of Three Games, rounds 2 and 3 with\na best of Five Games, and both the Conference Finals and Calder Cup Finals\nwith a best of Seven Games.\n\n# Why Realign?\n\nThe ultimate goal is to enhance competitive balance and foster new rivalries,\nmaking the playoff race and outcomes more reflective of team performance\nthroughout the season.\n\nThe current structure of the AHL divides the entire league into 2 conferences,\nand each conference has 2 divisions.\n\nIn the Eastern Conference, you have the Atlantic and North divisions. The\nAtlantic has 8 teams, while the North has 7.\n\nOut in the Western Conference, you have the Pacific and Central division. The\nPacific has 10 teams, while the Central has 7 teams.\n\nNow an interesting thing about the playoffs is that the top 7 (of 10) teams\nfrom the Pacific make the playoffs, while the top 5 (of 7) teams from the\nNorth and Central make it. The Atlantic sends its top 6 (of 8) teams to the\nplayoffs.\n\nEach division will have a certain number of teams with a bye-round, that is\nthey don't have the play in the first round.\n\nIn the North and Central three teams get a first-round bye, with only 2 teams\nplaying in round 1. In the Atlantic three teams get a first-round bye with 4\nteams playing in the first round.\n\nAnd in the Pacific division, you have 6 teams playing in the first round with\nonly ONE team getting a first-round bye.\n\nSo of the 23 teams that make the playoffs, 14 of them play in the first round,\nand of that 14, 6 come from the Pacific division.\n\nSeems a bit off to me.\n\nThis also had the slightly embarrassing (for the AHL at least) aspect of\nseeing the second-best team in the entire league in the 2022-23 season (the\nCoachella Valley Firebirds) needing to win a Play-in round to make it into\nwhat might be considered the playoffs.\n\nBy the time the Calder Cup Playoffs had concluded last year, the Firebirds\nlost to the Hershey Bears in 7 games. It was the MOST exciting series that I\nwill ever get to see in person, or on TV.\n\nThat being said, the Firebirds played 26 out of a possible 27 games during the\nplayoffs last year. The Bears played in 20 out of a possible 24.\n\nIf the Firebirds would have had a first-round bye, like the Bears, they would\nhave most likely still played in 23 out of 24 games (3 fewer games than what\nthey actually played) BUT three games can make a huge difference!\n\nI would like to make the case that realignment of the AHL, to a balanced set\nof divisions, and conferences is not only feasible, and easy, but in the best\ninterests of the AHL.\n\nBefore exploring the realignment scenario, I'll outline the proposed changes.\nThe realignment aims to balance the divisions and conferences, ensuring an\nequal number of teams in each division and a fairer playoff qualification\nprocess.\n\nAdditionally, if this realignment had happened last year, I believe that the\noutcomes could have been different (especially given the [Firebird Colored\nGlasses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rose-colored_glasses) I might be\nwearing).\n\nThere is a post on the [AHL Site ](https://theahl.com/howson-guiding-ahl-back-\nto-normalcy) about realignment. Quoting the League President Scott Howson:\n\n> There\u2019s no easy solution. I\u2019m not saying it\u2019ll never happen, but it\u2019s not in\n> the cards right now.\n\nOne item stated for a lack of realignment is, \"Realignment would break up the\nPacific cohort and likely force teams into the Central, and Howson does not\nsee that as likely, given the additional travel burden that it could put on\nthe division\u2019s members.\"\n\nI'm going to assume this is NOT the case. What I have below is from a \"Does\nthis seem like it might work?\" perspective. 2\n\n# Realignment\n\nWith my rationale for the need for realignment of the way, let's get into the\nactual implementation of the realignment.\n\nI built a [Streamlit app](https://streamlit.io/) to see what a potential\nrealignment would look like that can be found [here](https://ahl-\nrealignment.streamlit.app/).\n\nThe idea would be:\n\n  1. Move both Tucson and Colorado to the Central Divsiion to get the Pacific Division down to 8 team\n  2. Move Grand Rapids from the Central Division (in Western Conference) to the Atlantic Division (in the Eastern Conference) to get the Central and Atlantic to 8\n\n## Impact of Realignment on the 2023 Calder Cup Finals\n\nIn the NHL there are 2 conferences with 2 divisions of 8 teams each. The\nplayoffs get a total of 16 teams. The three top teams from each division, and\nthen the top two teams from the Conference.\n\nThis means that round 1 has 16 teams playing in 8 different series and NO ONE\ngets a bye.\n\nLet's imagine the 2023 Calder Cup Playoffs with realignment AND a similar\nstyle of playoff admission. One difference between the AHL and NHL I'd keep\nwould be to have 5 games in round 1 and 2, and increase to 7 games in the\nChampionship, versus the NHL which has 7 games in every round.\n\nI list the teams below in their proposed (potentially new) division. The\nnumber next to the team is the total points each team had at the end of the\n2022-23 regular season.\n\nThe Eastern Conference would have had the following seeding:\n\nAtlantic Division\n\n  * Providence (98)\n  * Hershey (97)\n  * Charlotte (86)\n\nNorth Division\n\n  * Toronto (90)\n  * Syracuse (81)\n  * Rochester (81)\n\nWild Card\n\n  * Springfield (84)\n  * Hartford (81)\n\nThe Western Conference would have had the following seeding:\n\nCentral Division\n\n  * Texas (92)\n  * Colorado (90)\n  * Milwaukee (89)\n\nPacific Division\n\n  * Calgary (106)\n  * Coachella Valley (103)\n  * Abbotsford (87)\n\nWild Card\n\n  * Manitoba (84)\n  * Iowa (79)\n\n### Eastern Conference Playoffs\n\n#### Round 1 Best of Five games\n\nIn this section, we'll explore the first-round matchups, highlighting the top\ncontenders and their paths to victory based on past performances and current\nstrengths.\n\nStarting in the Eastern Conference we would have the following round 1\nmatchups:\n\n  * Providence (98) vs Hartford (81)\n  * Toronto (90) vs Springfield (84)\n  * Hershey (97) vs Charlotte (86)\n  * Syracuse (81) vs Rochester (81)\n\nTo determine the winners I'm going to look at the playoffs last year and then\nmake an educated best guess as to the winners of each series\n\n##### Providence vs Hartford\n\nProvidence lost to Hartford in the Atlantic division semi-finals last year,\n1-3 and I see no reason for that to change ... other than maybe Hartford wins\nin 3 instead of 4. But I'm going to keep it at Hartford wins 3-1\n\n##### Toronto vs Springfield\n\nToronto and Springfield didn't play each other in the playoffs last year or in\nthe regular season. Springfield lost to Hartford 2-0 in round 1 while Toronto\nhad a first-round bye and defeated Utica 3-1 in the North division semi-\nfinals. My guess is that Toronto would have won this series 3-1\n\n##### Hershey vs Charlotte\n\nHershey defeated Charlotte in the Atlantic division semi-finals last year 3-1.\nGranted Charlotte had just played 3 games against Lehigh Valley and won that\nseries 2-1, I still think that Hershey defeats Charlotte, only it takes all 5\ngames. Hershey wins 3-2\n\n##### Syracuse vs Rochester\n\nSyracuse lost 3-2 to Rochester. Same result this time around I would think\n\n#### Round 2 Best of Five games\n\nBased on the seedings for the first round, I believe that Hartford would hold\na higher position than Rochester\n\n  * Hershey (97) vs Rochester (81)\n  * Toronto (90) vs Hartford (81)\n\n##### Hershey vs Rochester\n\nHershey defeated Rochester 3-2 last year. I believe the outcome would be the\nsame here (although this was in the Eastern Conference finals)\n\n##### Toronto vs Hartford\n\nToronto and Hartford didn't play each other last year, though each team did\nget swept in the division finals. They played each other in the regular season\nonly 2 times, each with the home team winning in OT. With Toronto getting the\nhome nod, I'll extrapolate to say that Toronto wins in 5 games, 3-2\n\n#### Round 3 (Eastern Conference Finals) Best of Seven\n\n##### Toronto vs Hershey\n\nToronto played Hershey 2 times and lost both times. I think that a series like\nthis would be closer, but Hershey comes out on top 4-2\n\n#### Eastern Conference Champion Review\n\nIn this realigned AHL for the Calder Cup finals, Hershey has played 16 out of\n17 games, going 10-6 to reach the Calder Cup Finals. When they actually\nreached the Calder Cup finals last year, they played only 13 games going 10-3\n(playing an extra 3 games)\n\n    \n    \n    Providence (98)----|\n                       |--Hartford (81)----|\n    Hartford (81)------|                   |\n                                           |--Toronto (90)-----|\n    Toronto (90)-------|                   |                   |\n                       |--Toronto (90)-----|                   |\n    Springfield (84)---|                                       |\n                                                               |--Hershey (87)\n    Hershey (87)-------|                                       |\n                       |--Hershey (87)-----|                   |\n    Charlotte (86)-----|                   |                   |\n                                           |--Hershey (87)-----|\n    Syracuse (81)------|                   |\n                       |--Rochester (81)---|\n    Rochester (81)-----|\n    \n\nLet's take a look out West next\n\n## Western Conference Playoffs\n\n### Round 1 Best of Five games\n\nIn the Western conference we would have had the following round 1 matchups:\n\n  * Calgary (106) vs Iowa (79)\n  * Texas (92) vs Manitoba (84)\n  * Coachella Valley3 (103) vs Abbotsford (87)\n  * Colorado (90) vs Milwaukee (89)\n\nAs with the Eastern Conference bracket to determine the winners I'm going to\nlook at the playoffs last year and then make an educated best guess as to the\nwinners of each series.\n\n##### Calgary vs Iowa\n\nCalgary didn't play Iowa at all in either the regular season or the postseason\nlast year. Based on the final records, I think it's safe to say that Calgary\nwins this series, but I believe it's 3-1\n\n##### Texas vs Manitoba\n\nTexas played Manitoba 8 times in the regular season last year with Manitoba\nwinning 6 of these games. There were several that went into OT which Manitoba\nwon more often than not. I think this goes to 5 games, but Manitoba wins 3-2.\n\n##### Coachella Valley vs Abbotsford\n\nCoachella Valley and Abbotsford played 4 times, each winning two games. Given\nthe disparity in total points at the end of the year, I think that Coachella\nValley wins in five 3-2.\n\n##### Colorado vs Milwaukee\n\nColorado and Milwaukee didn't play each other at all in the regular season. I\nthink that this is an even match-up, but I give the edge to Colorado since\nthey're the home team, winning 3-2.\n\n### Round 2 Best of Five games\n\n  * Calgary (106) vs Manitoba (84)\n  * Coachella Valley (103) vs Colorado (90)\n\n##### Calgary vs Manitoba\n\nCalgary wins this in 5, 3-2. They didn't play each other at all during the\nregular season, but I think that provincial pride forces the series to 5 games\n\n##### Coachella Valley vs Colorado\n\nCoachella Valley wins this in 5, 3-2. This is a repeat of the series last\nyear. I believe that it goes the distance again.\n\n### Round 3 (Western Conference Finals) Best of Seven\n\n##### Calgary vs Coachella Valley\n\nCoachella Valley defeats Calgary 4-3\n\nCoachella Valley and Calgary played each other in the Pacific Division Finals\nlast year. It was a brutal series with Coachella Valley winning in game 5 in\nOvertime. I think that the same result comes out here going the distance.\n\n    \n    \n    Calgary (106)------|\n                       |--Calgary (106)------|\n    Iowa (79)----------|                     |\n                                             |--Calgary (106)----|\n    Texas (92)---------|                     |                   |\n                       |--Manitoba (84) -----|                   |\n    Manitoba (84)------|                                         |\n                                                                 |--CV (103)\n    CV (103)-----------|                                         |\n                       |--CV (103)-----------|                   |\n    Abbotsford (87)----|                     |                   |\n                                             |--CV (103)---------|\n    Colorado (90)------|                     |\n                       |--Colorado (90)------|\n    Milwaukee (89)-----|\n    \n\n### Western Conference Champion Review\n\nAt the Calder Cup finals, Coachella Valley has played 17 out of 17 games,\ngoing 10-7. When they actually reached the Calder Cup finals last year, they\nplayed 19 games going 12-7. Two fewer games to get here.\n\n### Calder Cup Finals\n\nIn this matchup, Coachella Valley will have up to 4 home games, while Hershey\nwill have up to 3.\n\nCoachella Valley played in 2 fewer games in this scenario, while Hershey\nplayed in 3 more games, for a net difference of 5 games.\n\nI think the first two games go as they did last year. Epic drubbings at\nAcrisure Arena by Coachella Valley over Hershey. I think that the 3 games4 in\nHershey go 2-1 in favor of Hershey giving the Firebirds a chance to clinch on\nhome ice in game 6 which they do.\n\n## Evaluating the Impact of Realignment: A Reflection on Competitive Balance\nand Missed Opportunities\n\nGoing through this exercise doesn't change the outcome of the 2023 Calder Cup\nFinals. And I don't want this to seem like a sour grapes sort of thing. The\nHershey Bears won the Final game last year within the confines of the\nstructure that was set up by the AHL. In that sense, they won it fair and\nsquare.\n\nAlso, I'm not sure if this realignment had been in place my predictions would\nhave been correct necessarily.\n\nWhat I think it does point out is an extreme disadvantage that the Pacific\ndivision faces in the playoffs. Last year the Coachella Valley Firebirds were\nthe FIRST team west of Austin to make the Finals. They were also the first\nteam to EVER play a playoff game in EVERY timezone that the AHL operates a\nteam in.\n\n## Coda\n\nI was bummed that the Firebirds lost in Game 7 last year. [I wrote about\nit](https://www.ryancheley.com/2023/07/01/firebirds-inaugural-season/) just a\nfew days after it happened.\n\nIt was the most exciting sporting event I've ever seen, either in person or on\nTV. I'm not sure anything will ever be that intense and exciting.\n\nI really wish they would have won, and this shows that they just might have\nbeen able to if the conference, divisions, and playoff seedings were a bit\nmore balanced.\n\n  1. preliminary round that occurs before the start of the official playoffs. It is typically used to determine who gets the last spots in the playoff \u21a9\ufe0e\n  2. A full analysis is something I'll be looking at for another post in the future. There are lots of other items to look at like (1) Schedules, (2) Travel, and (3) Rivalries \u21a9\ufe0e\n  3. Coachella Valley is abbreviated CV in some cases below to save space \u21a9\ufe0e\n  4. In all honesty the 3 games in Hershey last year were games where the Firebirds seemed a bit tired. There was also some officiating that seemed a bit dubious (an offside that didn't get called that led to a goal that, IMO, shouldn't have counted) \u21a9\ufe0e\n\n", "2024-02-24", "realign-the-ahl", "# What is the AHL\n\n[The AHL](https://theahl.com/), or American Hockey League, is a hockey minor\nleague based in the US and Canada. It's widely considered to be the step right\nbelow the [NHL](https://www.nhl.com/) which is the top Hockey League in North\nAmerica.\n\nThere are 32 teams in the AHL, and [23 \u2026](https://theahl.com/qualification-\nrules)\n\n", "An Argument to Realign the AHL", "https://www.ryancheley.com/2024/02/24/realign-the-ahl/"]], "columns": ["author", "category", "content", "published_date", "slug", "summary", "title", "url"], "primary_keys": ["slug"], "primary_key_values": ["realign-the-ahl"], "units": {}, "query_ms": 1.0841106995940208}